If you knew about a potential large-scale risk that, although unlikely, could kill millions, would you warn society about it? In a series of experiments, we discovered that many people would be reluctant to warn.
This is really interesting. Do you think these results would be less relevant in domains where the social incentives to warn (e.g., fame, self-aggrandizement of one’s own work) significantly outweigh the disincentives (fear of blame)? I had in mind AI risk as plausibly being one such domain.
Thanks! Yes, I think it's possible. We measured both expected blame and expected praise and found that there's an asymmetry: people are much more concerned about blame than motivated by praise. (We explore this asymmetry more in a formal model in the supplementary materials here at the end: https://osf.io/kgth9?view_only=afccaa28b28d423785530527c986f218)
That said, I still think it's possible that some are more driven by positive social incentives. After all, people differ in the relative weight they give to motivation for praise vs. blame aversion. And as you say, it may also depend on the context.
This is really interesting. Do you think these results would be less relevant in domains where the social incentives to warn (e.g., fame, self-aggrandizement of one’s own work) significantly outweigh the disincentives (fear of blame)? I had in mind AI risk as plausibly being one such domain.
Thanks! Yes, I think it's possible. We measured both expected blame and expected praise and found that there's an asymmetry: people are much more concerned about blame than motivated by praise. (We explore this asymmetry more in a formal model in the supplementary materials here at the end: https://osf.io/kgth9?view_only=afccaa28b28d423785530527c986f218)
That said, I still think it's possible that some are more driven by positive social incentives. After all, people differ in the relative weight they give to motivation for praise vs. blame aversion. And as you say, it may also depend on the context.